Israel Kills Head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council; Iran Retaliates With Missiles

Israel escalated tensions by assassinating Ali Larijani, the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in a targeted airstrike.

“BREAKING IRGC confirms spokesman killed in US-Israel attackMillions across Middle East celebrate Eid under threat of warOil and gas prices surge amid concerns over global fuel supplies Click to pause breaking news tickerpause-square-backgroundClose Breaking News Tickerclose”

Al Jazeera

Larijani had served as parliament speaker and was involved in talks with the Trump administration before the war.

Al Jazeera

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed Larijani's death on social media.

The Israeli military simultaneously killed Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib.

Defense Minister Israel Katz described Khatib as 'responsible for the regime's internal apparatus of repression and assassination.'

Katz authorized the military to kill 'any senior Iranian figure,' vowing to continue 'eliminating and hunting them all.'

In immediate retaliation, Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard fired multiple-warhead missiles targeting the Tel Aviv area.

The Iranian missile attack, using cluster munitions, resulted in at least two civilian deaths in Ramat Gan.

Damage was also reported to infrastructure including a train station in central Israel.

The assassination of top Iranian officials represents Israel's latest strategy of targeted leadership decapitation.

Experts describe this strategy as having both tactical limitations and potential strategic risks.

Associated Press

A senior Israeli intelligence official told The Associated Press that Israel's strikes degraded political leaders' ability to issue orders, form policy, and make decisions.

Former head of Israel's military intelligence research division Yossi Kuperwasser acknowledged that targeted killings weaken enemies but don't dramatically change organizations' ability to cause damage.

Kuperwasser noted that in Iran, 'maybe there's not 'regime change' yet, but there is 'change in regime.' The people are not the same people.'

Northeastern University political scientist Max Abrahms warned that leadership decapitation is particularly risky when removing leaders who preferred restraint.

Abrahms noted that such deaths often lead to 'even more extreme tactics' from successors.

Historical examples of targeted killings suggest they often fail to achieve lasting strategic objectives.

Such operations can sometimes strengthen resistance movements through martyrdom and radicalization.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening salvo and replaced by his son Mojtaba, described as 'even less compromising.'

Despite leadership losses, Iran's Revolutionary Guard continues firing missiles and choking off the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, yet the group still fires rockets.

Israel also decapitated Hamas leadership, yet the group 'still controls half of Gaza and has not laid down arms.'

The U.S. took out bin Laden and al-Baghdadi, but both groups were only diminished after yearslong wars involving ground forces.

Despite Israel's strategy of targeted killings, there has been no sign of the uprising Netanyahu hoped for.

Netanyahu has stated the killings aim to weaken Iran's government so Iranians can rise up and overthrow it.

WUNC

He envisioned replacing it with a friendly government like the pro-Western monarchy overthrown in 1979.

The Independent reports 'There's been no sign of such an uprising since the war began, after Iranian authorities crushed mass protests in January.'

Mohanad Hage Ali emphasized that targeted killings without political strategy are ineffective.

Hage Ali stated: 'You can decapitate an organization or defeat it militarily, but if you don't follow through politically, it doesn't work.'

Jon Alterman noted that 'the impact of targeted killings often fades over time' as Iran's institutions have survived punishing actions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised concerns about Iran's nuclear program despite military damage.

“Israel's strategy of eliminating senior Iranian leaders through airstrikes, aimed at toppling the Islamic Republic, is facing scrutiny”

The Independent

IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi stated there has been 'an enormous degradation of the physical facilities' from U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Al Jazeera

However, Grossi believes 'most probably, at the end of this [military conflict], the material will still be there and the enrichment capacities will be there.'

Grossi emphasized Iran is 'a very big country with a sophisticated scientific, technological and industrial base' with a 'very vast program'.

He noted that while 'the most advanced parts' have been 'knocked down,' 'of course there is much more.'

The IAEA condemned a drone strike at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, though damage was 'not very significant'.

The agency does not know the status of an Iranian enrichment facility in Isfahan, as inspectors had to be evacuated when Israel attacked.