White House Warns Staff Against Insider Trading on Iran War Prediction Markets

The White House issued a warning to staff on March 24, cautioning them against using nonpublic government information to place bets on prediction markets.

“White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets White House staff were warned last month not to use insider information to place bets on predictions markets”

BBC

The warning came amid a surge of suspiciously well-timed trades on oil futures and prediction markets related to the Iran war.

BBC

The email stated it is a criminal offense to use nonpublic information to buy or sell these contracts.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said any implication that officials engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.

The warning followed a series of suspicious trades that raised concerns of insider trading.

More than $500 million in crude oil futures trades were made about 15 minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes on Iran's power plants.

CBS News

Newly created Polymarket accounts placed substantial bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire.

Rep. Ritchie Torres called the trading a statistical impossibility without insider knowledge.

The White House has said there is no evidence that anyone inside the administration used insider information.

Lawmakers have introduced more than a dozen bills to regulate prediction markets.

“The White House last month warned staff in an email not to make prediction markets bets related to the Iran war, a Trump administration official confirmed Friday”

CNBC

Some bills would prohibit members of Congress, the President, and executive branch officials from trading on prediction markets tied to political events.

The Trump administration has been largely supportive of prediction markets.

Clean Clothes Campaign spokesperson Ineke Zeldenrust said the audit system was fundamentally broken.